In public markets you can be roughly right and still do fine. Private markets offer no such safety net. This piece sets out the tests that separate a great private market investment from the rest: a structural edge, value creation that doesn't rely on cheap debt, real asymmetry, honest valuations, the right manager and terms that fit the portfolio.
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Most private equity pitches lead with governance, operational expertise, and deal sourcing, capital being the easy part to raise. This piece looks at what the evidence actually says about those claims: where operational improvement genuinely drives returns, where it's concentrated in a narrow slice of top managers, and the specific question allocators should ask before taking a track record at face value.
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The math behind private equity has changed: cheap debt and rising valuations used to do most of the work, now a typical deal needs more than double the earnings growth to hit the same return.
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Private markets now account for a growing share of the real economy, but the 'illiquidity premium' investors are promised isn't automatic, it has to be earned through selection.
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Farmland and commercial real estate are often grouped together as 'real assets,' but their return drivers, and their recent performance, tell very different stories.
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Farmland occupies a rare slot in a portfolio: income like a bond, long run appreciation, and a history of moving independent of stocks and bonds.
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